The Latter Day Lens

Why Do Smart People Believe Conspiracy Theories? (ep. 188)

• Shawn & Matt

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Why Do Smart People Believe Conspiracy Theories?

Why do intelligent, educated people sometimes believe things that aren't supported by evidence? And is believing a conspiracy theory necessarily a bad thing?

Matt and Shawn welcome David back to The Latter Day Lens for a conversation about political identity, election predictions, conspiracy theories, religious faith, and the rights of Americans living in U.S. territories.

The conversation begins with a thought-provoking listener observation: War might actually be worse than hell.

The listener reasons that people suffering in hell are understood to be accountable for their actions, while war inflicts terrible suffering on innocent people. Matt, Shawn, and David consider the implications before Matt takes the discussion in an unexpected direction: Would watching people suffer in hell be an appropriate form of entertainment?

From there, the conversation turns to politics.

What Do Left and Right Actually Mean?

Across the world, political movements are commonly described as left-wing or right-wing. But those labels don't necessarily mean the same thing everywhere.

Matt explains how political scientists use surveys to measure ideological self-placement and how voters relate their political identities to political parties.

Shawn traces the familiar left-right terminology to the French Revolution, while David raises a fascinating historical question: Was Abraham Lincoln a radical or a conservative?

Lincoln's opposition to slavery and defense of the Union illustrate how political labels depend on historical circumstances.

The conversation then becomes theological. Should Latter-day Saints align themselves with worldwide movements of the political left or right? Or is the gospel compatible with people who hold a wide variety of political beliefs?

Matt argues that political commitments and religious commitments will inevitably come into tension at times, regardless of ideology.

The discussion explores what happens when political convictions conflict with religious teachings—and how believers can navigate those disagreements.

Are Election Predictions Harmful?

Political polls, forecasting models, and prediction markets increasingly shape public expectations about elections.

But what happens when a forecast assigns a candidate a high probability of victory and the candidate loses?

Matt questions whether election predictions can create an exaggerated sense of certainty about outcomes that are inherently uncertain.

Shawn and David challenge the argument, asking whether forecasts are genuinely harmful and whether restricting their publication would create greater problems for freedom of expression.

The conversation considers voter turnout, public confidence, social pressure, and the difference between a forecast and an actual election result.

Why Do We Believe Conspiracy Theories?

This is where the conversation takes its most personal turn.

The anniversary of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks leads Matt to introduce claims about what Israeli officials may have known before the attacks. He also mentions longstanding conspiracy theories surrounding Pearl Harbor and September 11.

The hosts do not establish those claims as facts. Instead, they use them to explore a psychological question:

Why are conspiracy theories so appealing?

David discusses research suggesting that conspiracy beliefs can provide explanations for disturbing events, particularly when people feel powerless or unable to influence what happens around them.

Shawn connects the discussion to epistemology: the study of knowledge and how we determine what is true.

He argues that people need reliable methods for evaluating evidence rather than simply accepting explanations that feel convincing.

Matt takes a different position. He wonders whether believing an unproven theory is necessarily harmful, especially when the belief doesn't seem to affect anyone else's life.

Then he offers a particularly memorable example.

Matt explains that he has long believed silk boxers can cause infertility—largely because Kramer said something about it on Seinfeld.

David challenges whether Matt truly believes this or simply enjoys entertaining an unusual explanation.

The conversation moves from there to a much more serious issue: What happens when people continue believing something even after encountering substantial evidence against it?

Matt discusses how people defend deeply held beliefs, while Shawn emphasizes the importance of faith, evidence, and the spiritual process of seeking truth.

The hosts also consider how religious belief differs from conspiracy thinking, and whether an explanation can feel meaningful without being supported by reliable evidence.

Should Puerto Rico Become a State?

The final discussion begins with an unexpected observation from General Conference.

President Henry B. Eyring welcomed choir members from numerous countries, including Puerto Rico.

Matt points out that Puerto Rico is not an independent country. It is a U.S. territory, and people born there are generally U.S. citizens.

Yet residents of Puerto Rico do not have the same federal voting representation as residents of the 50 states.

That raises a question about equality, citizenship, representation, and self-determination.

Should residents of U.S. territories be offered a binding choice between statehood and independence?

Or should the current territorial arrangements remain available when residents have different preferences about their political future?

David discusses the historical transitions of Alaska and Hawaii from territories to states, while Shawn raises questions about whether the people of Puerto Rico have sufficiently expressed a preference for changing their status.

Matt argues that the central issue is not which status Puerto Rico should choose, but whether territorial residents have meaningful control over the decision.

The conversation ends with a familiar Latter Day Lens disagreement: What does it really mean for a people to govern themselves?

In This Episode

  • Is war worse than hell?
  • What left-wing and right-wing mean around the world
  • Abraham Lincoln and changing political identities
  • Political ideology and Latter-day Saint discipleship
  • Election polls, prediction markets, and voter expectations
  • The psychology of conspiracy theories
  • Pearl Harbor, September 11, and October 7 conspiracy claims
  • Epistemology and the search for truth
  • Faith, evidence, and personal revelation
  • Matt's Seinfeld-inspired infertility theory
  • Why people resist changing their beliefs
  • Puerto Rican citizenship and representation
  • Statehood, independence, and territorial status
  • Alaska, Hawaii, and the history of statehood
  • The Declaration of Independence and self-government

The Question We Want You to Answer

How do you distinguish healthy skepticism from conspiracy thinking?

Is it enough to believe something because it feels right or provides a convincing explanation? What responsibility do we have to reconsider our beliefs when we encounter contradictory evidence?

Send us your thoughts at LatterDayLens.com. We may discuss your responses on a future episode.

The Latter Day Lens explores politics, religion, culture, and current events through a Latter-day Saint lens. Matt and Shawn don't always agree—and that's the point. Our goal isn't to tell you what to think. It's to ask better questions.

Chapters

00:00 — Welcome Back, David
00:36 — Is War Worse Than Hell?
02:55 — What Do Left and Right Mean?
05:11 — The French Revolution and Political Labels
09:23 — Was Abraham Lincoln a Radical?
10:55 — Does the Gospel Favor a Political Ideology?
13:23 — When Politics Conflicts With Faith
15:35 — Are Election Predictions Harmful?
17:58 — Forecasts and Election Legitimacy
19:34 — Should Election Polling Be Restricted?
21:25 — Do Predictions Discourage Voting?
24:05 — Why Do People Believe Conspiracy Theories?
26:02 — The Psychology of Conspiracy Beliefs
27:08 — Faith, Epistemology, and Truth
29:26 — Can Conspiracy Thinking Be Harmful?
31:26 — Matt's Seinfeld Conspiracy Theory
33:13 — Why Evidence Doesn't Always Change Minds
35:57 — Is Puerto Rico Being Treated Unequally?
39:36 — Statehood, Independence, or Status Quo?
41:10 — What Did Puerto Rico Vote For?
43:09 — What Does Self-Determination Mean?
47:03 — The Economic Consequences of Statehood
49:25 — Do Nonbinding Votes Really Matter?
50:10 — Final Thoughts


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People on this episode

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Matthew Miles

Co-host
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Shawn Record

Co-host

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